A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
